Clearing Up The Currency Confusion
China's currency has once again grabbed the spotlight. Big falls against the dollar have raised fears that China is embarking on a major competitive devaluation, or that it has lost control of the...
View ArticleThe Gavekal Monthly - The Balance Of Risks
The new year has been a wild ride so far, with sharp drops in the renminbi, Chinese stock markets, and oil prices leading global markets down. In our first Gavekal Monthly of 2016 we try to make sense...
View ArticleTime To Choose, PBOC
Some calm has returned to China's exchange-rate market-but for how long? For the past two weeks, the renminbi's value has been relatively stable against both the US dollar and its official...
View ArticleNo Rush As China's Bond Market Opens
The opening of China's domestic bond market to global investors announced yesterday is a milestone event, which will lead, over time, to a large influx of foreign capital. But in the near term, policy...
View ArticleThe Gavekal Monthly-Nothing To Fear But Fear Itself
February saw some stability return to markets as investors got more comfortable with China's currency policy and became less convinced that the Federal Reserve made a fatal mistake in December by...
View ArticleParsing The Decline In China's Reserves
After falling by almost US$300bn in the three months to January, China's foreign reserves showed signs of stabilizing in February. The slower pace of decline is certainly welcome news for the central...
View ArticleDebt Swaps Are No Panacea For China
To help troubled borrowers, China's government is embracing debt-for-equity swaps. But while such swaps will reduce the burden on indebted companies and avoid an abrupt deleveraging, they will also...
View ArticleNo More Easing Likely
The latest dump of monthly Chinese economic data was generally soft, but what grabbed headlines was an apparent sharp slowdown in broad credit growth. In fact, a closer inspection shows that the pace...
View ArticleReduced Chance Of Renminbi Storms
The recent strength of the dollar has pushed the renminbi back down to the lows of January. And the renminbi could make new lows if Fed rate hikes trigger a run-up in the dollar-a big if, with the...
View ArticleThe Gavekal Monthly (June 2016) - Risks For Equities: Populism And The Dollar
Even as markets nudge higher, investors are unnerved by a rising tide of populist politics whose tangible expression will be tested on June 23, when UK voters must choose between Brexit or a less than...
View ArticleThe Renminbi Falls; No One Cares
This week the renminbi slipped to its lowest level against the dollar since 2010. Yet this decline had little impact on global markets, a sharp contrast to the convulsions caused by previous drops. In...
View ArticleWho Is Buying Chinese Bank Shares?
Few segments of global equity markets have been more reviled in recent years than the shares of China's big state banks. As corporate debt levels in China ballooned, especially among state-owned...
View ArticleEquities Decouple From The Renminbi
The renminbi fell to a six-year low of CNY6.78 to the US dollar this week, capping a -3% fall since June. In recent years, similar moves sparked turmoil in stock markets at home and abroad. Yet this...
View ArticleThe RMB: Steady As She Goes
In the first three trading days of 2017, the renminbi jumped more than 1% against the US dollar. But this bullish start to the year does not signal a change of tack for China's policymakers. Here, Chen...
View ArticleStrategy Monthly (March 2017) - Reflation Gets A China Boost
For the last three months, markets have been focused on "Trumpflation". But the global reflation trade began long before Donald Trump's November election, with China's surprisingly...
View ArticleDownfall Of A Regulator
The chief of China's insurance regulator has become the latest "crocodile" to be snared by the Communist Party's anti-corruption agency-the first leading financial regulator to face such scrutiny. Chen...
View ArticleAudio & Transcript - Gavekal Research April Conference Call
In Gavekal Research's April conference held last Thursday, Arthur Kroeber and Yanmei Xie considered the game of brinkmanship unfolding on the Korean peninsula and outlined likely Chinese responses....
View ArticleStrategy Monthly (July 2017) - The China Markets Opportunity
The doors to China's capital markets are opening wider, as MSCI included A-shares in its key indexes, and as the Bond Connect program launches in Hong Kong. In this Strategy Monthly, Thomas Gatley and...
View ArticleAudio & Transcript - Gavekal Research July Conference Call
Recent efforts to open up China's stock and bond markets have granted deeper access for foreign investors. In Tuesday's conference call Thomas Gatley outlined what MSCI's decision to include A-shares...
View ArticleVideo & Audio - London Seminar
At this month's seminar in London Anatole Kaletsky argued that the investment environment should remain upbeat given predictable global monetary policy and solid cyclical upturns in the US, Europe and...
View ArticleOverbought But Still Undervalued
Chinese stock markets are on a tear, with large cap A-shares up 8.9% and Hong Kong-listed H-shares up a thumping 16.3% year-to-date. After such a rapid rise, the markets are vulnerable to a near-term...
View ArticleSurviving China's Regulatory Storm - video interview with Chen Long
Scarcely a week goes by without word of some new regulatory crackdown on China's financial services industry. After years of financial liberalization, runaway growth in the shadow banking market, and...
View ArticleA First Step Towards Easing
The Chinese central bank is no longer in full policy tightening mode. That's good news for Chinese bank shares. Shortly after government statisticians released economic data for the first quarter on...
View ArticleAudio & Transcript - Gavekal Research July Conference Call
In yesterday's call Arthur Kroeber outlined his view on why President Donald Trump's trade war is not a bluff, and is only likely to escalate leading up to the US midterm elections in November. Andrew...
View ArticleBeijing Is Aiming At Stabilization, Not Stimulus
Chinese authorities are stepping up the pace of monetary easing, and are prepared to tolerate greater exchange rate volatility as a consequence. But, as Chen Long explains in this piece, Beijing's...
View ArticleAudio & Transcript - Gavekal Research March Conference Call
In this research conference call, Andrew Batson and Chen Long discussed the improving outlook for the Chinese economy in 2019 and the implications for financial markets. Confirmation that the...
View ArticleHong Kong, Singapore Seminar Invitation
We are pleased to invite you and your colleagues to our forthcoming seminars in Hong Kong and Singapore next month, where our analysts will present their outlooks for the year ahead. Hong Kong This...
View ArticleREMINDER: Gavekal Singapore seminar, Tomorrow, February 16, 8am
We are pleased to invite you and your colleagues to our forthcoming Singapore seminar Tomorrow, February 16, from 8:00am to 10:30am. The speakers and topics are as follows: • Anatole Kaletsky,...
View ArticleGavekal Global Research Call Invitation - April
In the aftermath of the first summit meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, the critical issues remain the same: a prickly trade and investment relationship which American businesses feel is...
View ArticleReminder: Gavekal Global Research Call Invitation - April
In the aftermath of the first summit meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, the critical issues remain the same: a prickly trade and investment relationship which American businesses feel is...
View ArticleGavekal Research Conference Call - The China Markets Opportunity (Tuesday...
China's stock and bond markets are opening up. In late June MSCI finally approved inclusion of A-shares in its indexes (albeit at a very low weight), and the beginning of July saw the opening of Bond...
View ArticleDon't Panic Over Chinese Equities
The A-share equity market suffered its biggest one-day sell-off this year yesterday, with a further fall this morning. But despite some doom-laden media commentary, Chen Long argues that conditions...
View ArticleZhou Xiaochuan's Legacy
Zhou Xiaochuan is expected to retire this month after 15 years heading the People's Bank of China, during which he oversaw both major reforms and an explosion of debt. Chen Long argues that Zhou's...
View ArticleGavekal Singapore Seminar, April 19
Singapore Seminar You and your colleagues are cordially invited to a Gavekal seminar in Singapore on Thursday, April 19, from 4pm to 6pm. Arthur Kroeber will summarize Gavekal's view of the global...
View ArticleNew York Seminar Invitation
New York Seminar Please join us for our upcoming New York Client Seminar, which will take place from 8:30am to 11:30am on Wednesday, May 23 at the University Club, 1 West 54th St. Presentations will...
View ArticleGavekal Research Conference Call (Wednesday, July 11) - Trade Wars: The View...
The global economy is bracing for trade war, with initial tariffs on trade between the US and China taking effect this month and other threats looming-including possible tariffs on US$600bn in cars and...
View ArticleLast Lap For China's Bond Rally
Starting from April, Chinese government and policy bank bonds are included in the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate bond index. But index inclusion, while an important landmark, may not be the best...
View ArticleStrategy Monthly: China After The Trade War
The prospect of a US-China deal on tariffs has already boosted China's stock market and currency. But it won't reverse China's growth slowdown, which is largely the result of Beijing's efforts to...
View ArticleVideo: Is The Worst Behind Us?
At our recent seminar in Shanghai, Chen Long presented the outlook for China's economy and markets. Crucially, the credit cycle appears to have bottomed out, and credit growth should accelerate towards...
View ArticleVideo: How Much Downside For The Renminbi?
Since the US slapped fresh tariffs on Chinese exports a week ago, the renminbi has fallen, but by less than when the first round of tariffs were imposed last year. In this video interview. Chen Long...
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